Trump’s Second Term And The 2026 Midterms: What NPR’s Ron Elving Says To Watch
Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
- Trump’s second term is far less constrained than his first, with a Cabinet and staff made up largely of loyalists and enablers.
- Cracks in Republican support are emerging over Ukraine, the economy, health care, food prices, and the handling of the Epstein files.
- Cultural activists and right‑wing media influencers are increasingly divided over Israel, Venezuela, and who controls the future of the MAGA movement.
- Rule of law norms are being tested by tariffs, a deportation drive, military strikes without Congress, and symbolic rebranding of major institutions.
- Trump’s age and succession will loom large as he turns 80 in 2026 and attention shifts to who leads the movement after him.
Table of Contents
- 2025 In Politics: The Big Picture
- How Trump’s Second Term Changed GOP Power Dynamics
- Cracks Inside The Republican Party And MAGA Movement
- Rule Of Law, Institutions, And Presidential Power
- What To Watch Heading Into The 2026 Midterms
- How Curious Citizens Can Go Deeper
2025 In Politics: The Big Picture
NPR senior contributor Ron Elving joined Scott Simon on Weekend Edition Saturday to look back at 2025 and ahead to the 2026 midterms. His core message: you did not need “paranormal powers” to predict that Donald Trump’s return to the White House would produce an unusually turbulent term.
Trump came back to power despite having been impeached twice and indicted in both state and federal cases. Elving notes that this history has not made him more cautious; if anything, it has reduced the likelihood that threats of legal consequences will restrain him this time around.
How Trump’s Second Term Changed GOP Power Dynamics
During Trump’s first term, there was at least some balance between the president’s impulses and the constraints provided by more traditional Republican figures and Washington insiders. Those actors, Elving argues, are largely gone.
In their place, the Cabinet and White House staff are now dominated by “dedicated enablers” – people whose primary role is to carry out Trump’s orders rather than moderate or reinterpret them. For readers trying to understand why policies can change so quickly now, this internal shift is crucial.
Cracks Inside The Republican Party And MAGA Movement
As 2026 approaches, Elving highlights two layers of division:
- Vulnerable GOP officeholders are starting to distance themselves from Trump on issues like health care, food prices, Ukraine, the economy, and the Epstein files. This follows a familiar midterm pattern: when a president is down in the polls, members in swing districts look for ways to create daylight.
- Non‑officeholder supporters – especially cultural activists, podcasters, and online influencers – are increasingly at odds over Israel, Venezuela, and the fallout from Epstein‑related revelations.
These media figures are also competing over who will control the “MAGA megaphone” once Trump inevitably begins to fade, raising long‑term questions about who defines the movement’s identity.
Rule Of Law, Institutions, And Presidential Power
Elving points to a pattern of testing institutional boundaries:
- Trump tariffs reshaping trade policy
- A deportation drive that underscores hard‑line immigration enforcement
- Military strikes without congressional approval, challenging traditional war‑powers norms
- Highly symbolic moves like the partial demolition of the White House and the Trump rebranding of the Kennedy Center and the U.S. Institute of Peace
Elving frames these actions as a systematic effort to “try the locks on the doors”: see which constraints hold, which do not, and who—if anyone—will step up to enforce the law. For engaged citizens, this means watching not only what the president does, but also how Congress, the courts, and state governments respond.
What To Watch Heading Into The 2026 Midterms
Looking forward, Elving expects continued and possibly escalating confrontations over presidential power and accountability. But he also urges listeners to pay attention to something more personal: Trump’s age and public presentation.
Trump will turn 80 on June 14, 2026, and plans major, highly visible events around his birthday. Regardless of the staging, there will be persistent questions: Is he the same political force? Does he still have the energy and magnetism that defined his rise? Once the midterms conclude, he argues, focus naturally shifts to succession—who might lead the movement, or the party, after Trump.
How Curious Citizens Can Go Deeper
If you want to explore these themes further, consider:
- Listening to companion coverage such as NPR’s Politics Podcast year‑in‑review episodes on foreign policy and environmental policy, which place specific decisions in a broader pattern.
- Tracking House and Senate races where Republicans are openly breaking with Trump on Ukraine aid, health care, or economic policy.
- Following media ecosystem shifts: which influencers gain or lose prominence as debates over Israel, Venezuela, and Epstein continue.
By pairing detailed reporting like Elving’s with your own monitoring of campaigns, legal challenges, and activist media, you can build a more complete picture of how 2025’s political shocks will shape the 2026 midterms—and the future of American democracy.
Source: https://www.npr.org/2025/12/27/nx-s1-5651245/week-in-politics-2025-politics-overview-a-look-ahead-at-midterms
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