Tarique Rahman’s Return: What It Means for Bangladesh’s Next Election

Estimated reading time: 4 minutes

Key Takeaways

  • After 17 years in exile, Tarique Rahman, acting chairman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), has returned to Dhaka ahead of crucial February 2026 elections.
  • Rahman’s comeback follows the ouster of long-time leader Sheikh Hasina and the formation of an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus.
  • Most charges and convictions against Rahman have been stayed or overturned, clearing the way for his active political role.
  • The BNP is currently the electoral frontrunner, especially with the Awami League barred from contesting.
  • Rahman’s biggest challenge will be uniting his loyal inner circle with the wider party structure built by his mother, former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia.

Table of Contents

Who Is Tarique Rahman?

Tarique Rahman, 60, is widely viewed as the political heir to one of Bangladesh’s most powerful dynasties. He is the eldest son of former President Ziaur Rahman and Khaleda Zia, who became the country’s first female prime minister in 1991.

Rahman emerged as a major political figure during Khaleda Zia’s second term in office from 2001 to 2006. As he rose inside the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, he also attracted serious allegations of cronyism, corruption, and links to political violence. A military-backed caretaker government that ruled between 2006 and early 2009 investigated these claims.

In March 2007, army units arrested Rahman in a dramatic late-night raid on his Dhaka residence. After nearly 18 months in detention, he was released on bail and flew to the United Kingdom in 2008 for medical treatment, not returning to Bangladesh until December 25, 2025.

His image became controversial even beyond party politics. In leaked US diplomatic cables published by WikiLeaks in 2011, American diplomat James F Moriarty described Rahman as a symbol of “kleptocratic government and violent politics,” recommending that Washington block his entry to the United States.

Under the Awami League government, Rahman was later convicted in cases involving money laundering, fraud, and political violence — including a grenade attack on then-opposition leader Sheikh Hasina’s rally in 2004 that killed at least 20 people. Both Rahman and the BNP have consistently called the charges politically motivated.

Why Was He in Exile?

To understand Rahman’s long exile, it helps to look at Bangladesh’s dueling political families. Since 1991, Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina have alternated in power, except for brief transitional periods. Each rose to prominence after the assassinations of their husbands or fathers, both central figures in the country’s post-independence history.

When Sheikh Hasina returned to power in 2009 after eight years in opposition, the BNP faced sustained crackdowns. Many BNP leaders and activists were jailed, harassed, or prosecuted. Rahman, however, had already left for the UK in September 2008 after being granted bail during the 2007–08 emergency rule.

His absence effectively turned him into a long-distance power broker. From London, Rahman became the BNP’s acting chairman in 2018, after Khaleda Zia was jailed under Hasina’s rule. For supporters, he symbolized resistance; for critics, he remained the face of alleged corruption and impunity.

Why His Return Matters Now

Rahman’s return comes at a pivotal moment. In August 2024, a student-led uprising against Sheikh Hasina’s government escalated from protests over affirmative-action policies in government jobs into a nationwide movement demanding her resignation. A brutal security crackdown followed, and the United Nations estimates that up to 1,400 people were killed.

Hasina eventually fled Bangladesh by helicopter on August 5, 2024, heading to India. An interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus took over, promising to steer the country back to democratic elections, now scheduled for February 12.

After Hasina’s fall, most of Rahman’s previous convictions and charges were stayed or overturned, clearing the legal path for his homecoming. At a massive rally in Dhaka on his return, Rahman compared the 2024 uprising to the country’s 1971 independence war and called for an inclusive, safe Bangladesh where women, men, and children can move freely without fear.

Politically, his arrival coincides with two other major shifts:

  • The Awami League has been barred from participating in the upcoming elections.
  • The BNP has distanced itself from Jamaat-e-Islami, its long-time Islamist ally, signaling an attempt to occupy a more secular, centrist space.

For observers, this suggests a BNP strategy aimed not only at winning power but also at reshaping its image for both domestic and international audiences.

How Is the BNP Placed for the Election?

Current data points to a favorable landscape for Rahman and the BNP. A December survey by the US-based nonprofit International Republican Institute (IRI) shows:

  • BNP: 30 percent support
  • Jamaat-e-Islami: 26 percent support
  • National Citizen Party (NCP): 6 percent support

Because Bangladesh uses a first-past-the-post electoral system, a party does not need a majority of votes to win a majority of seats. This makes the BNP’s lead particularly significant, especially with the Awami League excluded from the race.

The NCP, formed by a faction of student leaders after the 2024 uprising, has struggled to convert street momentum into an organized electoral machine due to limited resources and weak national infrastructure.

Former US diplomat Jon Danilowicz notes that the upcoming election is essentially the BNP’s to lose, emphasizing the party’s resilience over 17 years out of power and under repression. Yet he flags a critical internal challenge: Rahman must integrate his small loyal group that stayed close to him during exile with the wider BNP apparatus built over decades by Khaleda Zia.

What Should Observers Watch Next?

If you follow South Asian politics, Rahman’s return offers several key storylines to track:

  • Leadership transition inside the BNP: How smoothly does Rahman take over day-to-day leadership from his ailing mother, and can he manage competing factions?
  • Policy repositioning: Does the BNP’s move away from Jamaat-e-Islami translate into concrete secular, liberal, or centrist policy proposals?
  • Election credibility: Will the interim government under Muhammad Yunus maintain enough neutrality and transparency to reassure citizens and international observers?
  • Public perception of Rahman: Can he successfully recast himself from a figure associated with corruption allegations into a national leader promising safety, inclusion, and democratic renewal?

For readers interested in going deeper, consider exploring:

  • Comparative analyses of dynastic politics in South Asia.
  • Case studies of transitions from long-term rule to interim governments.
  • Research on how diaspora leaders return from exile and reshape domestic politics.

Rahman’s return doesn’t just set up a competitive election; it signals a new chapter in Bangladesh’s struggle over legitimacy, accountability, and the balance between street power and parliamentary politics.

Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12/25/bnp-leader-tarique-rahman-returns-who-is-bangladeshs-potential-next-pm