Nativism and the Future of the UK Union

Nativism and the Quiet Disintegration of the United Kingdom

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

Key takeaways

• The United Kingdom’s future as a unified state is no longer guaranteed, despite visible displays of unionist symbolism.
• Plurinational states often collapse rapidly once pro-integration parties weaken and majority-nation elites shift their stance.
• Brexit marked a turning point where English nationalism moved from integrationist to disintegrative, with long-term consequences.
• Contemporary British politics is increasingly shaped by British nativism, particularly within the radical right.
• A progressive, inclusive vision of Englishness may be essential to counter fragmentation and preserve democratic stability.

Table of contents

• The emerging fear of UK disintegration
• What history tells us about plurinational polities
• English political elites and the pro-British project
• Brexit as a turning point for English nationalism
• The rise of British nativism and the radical right
• Why a progressive Englishness matters
• What engaged readers can watch for and do

The emerging fear of UK disintegration

The article highlights a growing anxiety that the United Kingdom, in its current form, may not endure. Despite the ubiquity of union flags and the British rhetoric used by political leaders, underlying political dynamics tell a more fragile story. The concern is not about a slow, predictable decline, but about the potential for relatively sudden disintegration once key conditions align.

Readers interested in constitutional politics, devolution, and national identity will recognize that this is not just an abstract fear; it is connected to changing voting patterns and party loyalties, particularly in the run-up to the May 2026 elections.

What history tells us about plurinational polities

The United Kingdom is a plurinational polity – a state made up of multiple national communities: English, Scottish, Welsh, and Northern Irish. Historical experience in the 20th century shows that when these kinds of states break apart, they often do so quickly once certain pressures build.

Two conditions are especially important:

• Weakening of pro-integration parties – When major parties that support the union lose influence, the institutional glue holding the state together weakens.
• Shifts in the majority nation’s elites – When political elites in the largest nation (in this case, England) stop prioritizing integration, the union can rapidly become politically unsustainable.

In the UK context, anticipated weakening of Labour and the Conservatives in 2026 could be more than just an electoral reshuffle; it may signal that, as the article puts it, the centre may not hold.

English political elites and the pro-British project

So far, elites in England – from politicians and civil servants to opinion formers – generally remain committed to a pro-British, pro-union stance. Yet, the landscape is changing around them. Newer and more radical parties are testing the boundaries of what it means to speak for England rather than Britain.

The article notes that Reform UK is shaped by a longstanding ambiguity in English nationalism: is the primary loyalty to a British union or to England alone? At the same time, the Conservatives, described as more radical right than conservative these days, may eventually find strategic advantage in adopting a more explicitly English identity.

Brexit as a turning point for English nationalism

Brexit is framed as a pivotal moment when English nationalism shifted from an integrationist force to a disintegrative one. Historically, English nationalism often supported integration into larger political projects – from the empire to the UK to the European Union.

With Brexit, that energy turned against the EU, producing historic consequences and revealing how quickly a nationalism that once sustained unions can be repurposed to dismantle them. Now that the EU is no longer available as a political target, the question becomes: Where does that energy go next?

The rise of British nativism and the radical right

The article argues that, in the post-Brexit era, nationalism in England has been increasingly dominated by British nativism – a politics centered on protecting a perceived core population from outsiders, rather than on inclusive civic values.

This nativism often overlaps with radical-right agendas and culture-war narratives. While it may mobilize some sections of the electorate, it is unlikely to address the deeper, long-term pressures driving fragmentation across the UK’s nations, including demands for greater autonomy or independence.

Why a progressive Englishness matters

One of the article’s most important claims is prescriptive: it is time to invest Englishness with a progressive political project. Leaving English identity entirely to xenophobic or exclusionary currents risks accelerating disintegration and undermining democratic norms.

A progressive Englishness could:

• Embrace diversity and shared democratic values as core to being English.
• Support fair, stable relationships with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
• Provide an alternative to nativist politics that is still emotionally resonant and identity-based.

For readers engaged in activism, policy, or community work, this suggests a practical agenda: shaping narratives, institutions, and policies that make room for a confident but inclusive English identity.

What engaged readers can watch for and do

To turn these insights into action and deeper understanding, you can:

• Track electoral shifts – Pay attention to how support for Labour, the Conservatives, Reform UK and pro-independence parties moves in the 2026 and subsequent elections.
• Study constitutional debates – Follow discussions on devolution, Scottish independence and reform of the UK’s political structures.
• Support inclusive narratives – In local conversations, media consumption and civic engagement, amplify interpretations of Englishness that are open, democratic and outward-looking.
• Explore related analysis – Seek out reporting and commentary on devolution, British identity, and nationalism to build a richer picture of the UK’s evolving political geography.

Engaged, informed citizens are central to whether the UK’s future is characterized by constructive reform or by destabilizing disintegration driven by nativist currents.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jan/01/nativism-and-the-disintegration-of-the-uk