California’s Big Political Battles in 2026

Big Political Battles Ahead for California in the 2026 Midterms

Estimated reading time: 4 minutes

Key Takeaways

• California enters 2026 with a projected $18 billion budget deficit and a lame-duck governor.
• The governor’s race is wide open, with more than a dozen candidates and over 40% of voters still undecided.
• Affordability and reactions to Donald Trump are emerging as the defining themes of early 2026 campaigns.
• A competitive primary will decide who replaces Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi after nearly four decades in Congress.
• Redistricting battles could shift the balance of power in the U.S. House, with both parties poised to gain seats through new maps.

Table of Contents

• Newsom’s Final Year and a Tough Budget Reality
• A Crowded and Unpredictable Governor’s Race
• Key Campaign Themes: Affordability and Trump
• Who Will Succeed Nancy Pelosi?
• Redistricting, Gerrymandering, and the 2026 Midterms
• How California Voters Can Prepare and Stay Engaged

Newsom’s Final Year and a Tough Budget Reality

California politics in 2026 begin with a major transition: Governor Gavin Newsom is entering his final year in office. For the first time since the pandemic, he will deliver his State of the State address in person before a joint session of the legislature in Sacramento, marking a symbolic return to political normalcy.

Yet the policy environment is anything but easy. The state faces a projected $18 billion budget deficit, setting up hard choices on spending priorities, cuts, and potential revenue measures. This fiscal backdrop will shape nearly every statewide debate, from education and housing to homelessness and healthcare.

For voters, this means 2026 is not only about personalities and campaigns, but also about how competing candidates plan to manage a large deficit while protecting essential services.

A Crowded and Unpredictable Governor’s Race

With Newsom termed out, the race to become California’s next governor is officially on — and it is already crowded. According to reporting, more than a dozen candidates are vying to become the state’s next chief executive.

Political consultant Justin Berton notes that the contest has become both “slight and big,” meaning that while the field is large, no true frontrunner has emerged. Consultant Jim Ross adds that even the best-known contenders are only polling in the low teens, around 12% to 14%.

“There’s as much as 44, 45% of the electorate undecided,” Ross points out, underscoring just how fluid the race is.

For engaged voters, this volatility is an opportunity: early research, town halls, and candidate forums can meaningfully shape who gains momentum before the primary.

Key Campaign Themes: Affordability and Trump

While specific policy plans will evolve, early messaging is already converging around a few core issues. As Berton frames it, “Affordability is the word of 2025 and early 2026”. From housing and rent to groceries, gas, and utilities, the cost of living crisis is expected to dominate debates.

Another unavoidable presence in California politics: Donald Trump. Even in a deep-blue state, Trump continues to be a central reference point — candidates will position themselves either in opposition to his vision or in critique of how Democrats have responded to him.

For readers tracking the race, it can be helpful to:

• Compare how candidates define “affordability” (housing vs. taxes vs. wages).
• Look for specific plans, not just slogans, on cost-of-living relief.
• Note whether candidates focus more on national figures like Trump or on local, California-centric solutions.

Who Will Succeed Nancy Pelosi?

One of the most closely watched contests will unfold in San Francisco, where voters will choose a successor to Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi. After nearly 40 years in Congress, her planned departure in January 2027 sets up a high-stakes June primary in 2026.

This race is about more than a single district seat; it will signal the next generation of leadership for one of the most influential Democratic strongholds in the country. Progressive, moderate, and establishment-aligned candidates are all likely to compete for the mantle.

If you live in or near San Francisco, consider:

• Signing up for candidate newsletters to compare priorities.
• Watching or attending debates to see how contenders distinguish themselves from Pelosi’s legacy.
• Tracking endorsements from community groups, labor, and local officials as early signals of viability.

Redistricting, Gerrymandering, and the 2026 Midterms

Beyond statewide races, the 2026 midterm elections will be shaped by newly drawn congressional maps. Nationwide, the Republican Party is fighting to hold on to a razor-thin majority in the U.S. House, while Democrats see a realistic path to retaking control.

In California, voters have approved a new congressional map designed to favor Democrats. Analysts expect it could help Democrats flip up to five Republican-held seats, potentially reshaping the state’s delegation.

However, this is not happening in isolation. Several Republican-led states, including Texas, have passed maps that strengthen GOP prospects. As it stands:

• Republicans could gain as many as nine seats nationwide through redistricting.
• Democrats could gain around six seats, including potential pickups in California.

These competing maps reflect a broader question: Will carefully engineered districts (often criticized as gerrymandering) perform as intended, or will national political trends override them?

How California Voters Can Prepare and Stay Engaged

With so much at stake in 2026 — from the governor’s office and congressional control to Pelosi’s successor and the impact of redistricting — California voters have a powerful opportunity to shape the future.

To stay engaged and informed, consider these practical steps:

• Bookmark official election resources from the California Secretary of State to track deadlines and registration rules.
• Follow local outlets that offer in-depth coverage of specific races in your district.
• Create a comparison sheet for top candidates on issues like affordability, housing, climate, and public safety.
• Join or watch community forums hosted by neighborhood groups, universities, or civic organizations.
• Explore multiple perspectives to understand how national dynamics, such as Trump-era politics and redistricting, intersect with local needs.

As campaign season accelerates, returning to these touchpoints will help you move from information overload to informed choice.

Source: https://abc7news.com/post/2026-election-big-political-battles-ahead-california-including-race-governor-midterms-nancy-pelosis-seat/18340625/