California’s Starless Governor’s Race: Why 2026 Could Get Very Weird

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

Key Takeaways

  • California’s 2026 governor’s race lacks a clear superstar, a sharp contrast with recent big-name governors like Arnold Schwarzenegger, Jerry Brown, and Gavin Newsom.
  • The state’s top-two “jungle primary” raises a real, if still unlikely, risk that two Republicans could advance to the general election in a deep-blue state.
  • Ten candidates are officially in: eight Democrats and two Republicans, all struggling with low name recognition and fragmented support.
  • A late entry by a celebrity or mega–self-funder could scramble the race, especially with the filing deadline not until March 2026.
  • The next governor will inherit major structural problems: budget pressures, environmental challenges, and a severe housing affordability crisis.

Table of Contents

How We Got to a “Starless” Governor’s Race

For two decades, California’s governor’s mansion has been occupied by political giants. Arnold Schwarzenegger arrived as a global movie star turned recall hero. Jerry Brown spanned eras, serving nonconsecutive tenures and running for president multiple times. Gavin Newsom entered with a national profile as former San Francisco mayor and lieutenant governor.

By contrast, the 2026 contest feels unusually subdued. Two potential blockbuster Democrats — former vice-president and senator Kamala Harris and senator Alex Padilla — chose not to run, removing the most obvious front-runners and leaving a field of credible but comparatively low-wattage figures.

Who’s Actually Running in 2026?

The current lineup includes ten candidates:

Democrats (8)

  • Katie Porter – U.S. representative known for high-profile hearings and a tough 2024 Senate race.
  • Eric Swalwell – U.S. representative and briefly a 2020 presidential candidate.
  • Tony Thurmond – State superintendent of public instruction, backed by powerful teachers unions.
  • Betty Yee – Former state controller.
  • Antonio Villaraigosa – Former Los Angeles mayor and 2018 gubernatorial candidate.
  • Xavier Becerra – Former Biden HHS secretary and ex-California attorney general.
  • Ian Calderon – Former state assembly majority leader with ties to the crypto industry.
  • Tom Steyer – Hedge fund billionaire and liberal activist who ran for president in 2020.

Republicans (2)

  • Steve Hilton – Fox News commentator and former U.K. Conservative operative, closely aligned with Donald Trump.
  • Chad Bianco – Riverside County sheriff and former Oath Keeper.

For politically engaged readers, this field offers a mix of policy wonks, organizers, and media-savvy personalities — but none yet commands statewide dominance.

What Early Polls Reveal About Voter Sentiment

An early-December Emerson poll underscores just how flat the race is:

  • Chad Bianco: 13%
  • Steve Hilton, Eric Swalwell: 12% each
  • Katie Porter: 11%
  • Antonio Villaraigosa: 5%
  • Tom Steyer, Xavier Becerra: 4% each
  • All others combined: 7%
  • Undecided / Don’t know: 31%

Most candidates have under 50% name recognition, and even Porter’s visibility carries negative baggage after a bruising Senate race and a widely covered on-air outburst. For voters, that means you still have time — and leverage — to shape the narrative before the June 2, 2026 primary.

Why the Top-Two Primary Could Shock Democrats

California uses a nonpartisan top-two primary system: all candidates appear on one ballot, and the top two finishers, regardless of party, advance to November.

With eight Democrats splitting the vote and only two Republicans consolidating the right, Democrats fear a scenario where both GOP candidates slip into the top two. Analysts still see a full Democratic wipeout as unlikely, but the fact that it is even plausible has made party insiders anxious.

“It’s less about ideology and more about math and fragmentation. Too many overlapping Democratic lanes could create a freak result.”

Wild Cards: Billionaires, Celebrities, and Late Entrants

The story is far from settled. The filing deadline doesn’t hit until March, leaving room for:

  • Celebrities from Hollywood to test the Schwarzenegger playbook.
  • Wealthy self-funders like Los Angeles developer Rick Caruso to jump in.
  • Additional statewide figures, such as Attorney General Rob Bonta, to see an opening and run.

Tom Steyer is especially worth watching. His “checkbook primary” potential means he can quickly buy name ID with massive ad spending — something data shows is often decisive in low-awareness statewide races.

Ideology, Identity, and Geography: The Race’s Hidden Fault Lines

Behind the polling noise, several deeper dynamics are in play:

  • Ideological lanes: Thurmond champions single-payer health care; Villaraigosa leans moderate; Porter is known for tough corporate oversight; Calderon courts the crypto world; Becerra stresses his legal fights with the Trump administration.
  • Ethnic representation: Becerra, Calderon, and Villaraigosa are Latino; Yee is Asian American; Thurmond is Black — all running in one of the nation’s most diverse states.
  • Regional pride: Los Angeles–area candidates (Calderon, Porter, Villaraigosa) face off with Bay Area contenders (Steyer, Swalwell, Thurmond, Yee) and Sacramento’s Becerra.

For voters, this means you can evaluate candidates not just on party, but on how their regional roots and community ties might shape priorities on housing, transportation, and public safety in your part of the state.

What’s at Stake for California Voters

Whoever wins in 2026 is unlikely to enter office with the immediate national stature of a Schwarzenegger or a Newsom. But the job may be harder than ever.

The next governor will confront:

  • Chronic fiscal pressures and volatile tax revenues.
  • A fractious legislature with overlapping Democratic factions.
  • Intensifying environmental and natural resource challenges, from wildfires to water management.
  • A boiling housing affordability crisis and an “abundance agenda” debate over how aggressively to streamline building and reform regulation.

If you care about rent, commutes, climate resilience, or public schools, the outcome of this “starless” race will touch your daily life — even if the candidates are not household names yet.

What You Can Watch for Next

To stay ahead of the curve as the June 2 primary approaches, consider:

  • Tracking new polls to see whether Democrats consolidate around a smaller set of front-runners.
  • Watching endorsements from unions, local officials, and national figures, which can signal momentum.
  • Comparing housing and cost-of-living plans — a key differentiator in a state facing an affordability crunch.
  • Following candidate debates and long-form interviews to test whether lesser-known contenders can break through on substance.

For deeper context, explore additional election coverage, historical looks at California’s recall politics, and explainers on the top-two primary system to better understand how your vote can shape both June and November outcomes.

Source: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/californias-starless-governors-race-could-get-very-weird.html