Inside 16 Bold Predictions for American Politics in 2026

16 Political Predictions for 2026: What Jonathan Martin Sees Coming

Estimated reading time: 6 minutes

• Donald Trump’s third term is reshaping everything from the Supreme Court to the Federal Reserve and global conflict zones.
• Control of Congress in 2026 may hinge on redistricting gambits, Senate surprise races, and Trump’s primary endorsements.
• Democrats’ 2028 presidential field is already forming, with potential pitfalls hidden in memoirs and media strategies.
• Geopolitical shocks and market volatility, from Russia and China to NVDA’s share price, loom large over U.S. politics.
• Even college football in the SEC becomes a colorful metaphor for political drama and leadership style.

Table of Contents

• Trump’s Legacy Play: Landmarks, Courts, and the Fed
• Congress in 2026: Redistricting, Resignations, and Power Shifts
• Democrats and 2028: Books, Brands, and Backfires
• Geopolitics, Markets, and the “Known Unknowns”
• Why College Football Keeps Showing Up in Politics
• How to Use These Predictions as a Political Reader

Trump’s Legacy Play: Landmarks, Courts, and the Fed

Jonathan Martin’s multiple-choice “office pool” for 2026 uses humor to spotlight serious power moves. He imagines President Donald Trump putting his name on a Washington landmark for America’s 250th birthday, teasing options from Dulles Airport to the National Mall. Beneath the satire lies a real question: how aggressively will Trump brand America’s institutions as his own?

On the Supreme Court, Martin game-plans a possible vacancy and floats names like Jeanine Pirro, Andrew Oldham, Aileen Cannon, and Ted Cruz, a lineup that captures both Trump’s loyalty politics and his appetite for ideological warriors.

Even monetary policy is politicized. The quiz imagines Trump installing a new “My Kevin” at the Federal Reserve and immediately pressuring him to cut rates. The joke answer options (“In the Truth Social post announcing his selection”) underscore just how fast Trump is expected to blur, or erase, the Fed’s traditional independence.

Congress in 2026: Redistricting, Resignations, and Power Shifts

For Congress-watchers, Martin’s predictions are a roadmap of pressure points. He zeroes in on:

• House primaries where Trump may try to punish disloyal Republicans, including districts in Kentucky and Indiana.
• Senate races where Democrats could overperform expectations, with states like Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Nebraska flagged as potentially closer than the much-hyped Texas race.
• Redistricting fallout from Trump-ordered GOP map redraws, which could either be a masterstroke or a strategic overreach that helps Democrats win back the House.

He even speculates on the next House Republican resignation after Marjorie Taylor Greene, pointing to figures like Don Bacon, Elise Stefanik, Victoria Spartz, and Cory Mills. That list reflects the stress fracturing different corners of the GOP caucus.

Democrats and 2028: Books, Brands, and Backfires

Martin’s most pointed commentary may be on the early Democratic presidential bench. He suggests one 2028 hopeful will sabotage their own prospects by releasing the wrong book at the wrong time:

• Gavin Newsom wrestling in print with late-career “self-discovery.”
• Josh Shapiro leaning too hard on the governor’s mansion arson story as a campaign origin myth.
• Kamala Harris revisiting 2024, despite a party eager to move on.
• Pete Buttigieg reinforcing the image of “smart technocrat,” great for appointments, less so for retail politics.

For readers tracking 2028, these scenarios double as a checklist: watch how Democrats frame their personal narratives, and whether they mistake media buzz for grassroots demand.

Geopolitics, Markets, and the “Known Unknowns”

The column widens its lens to global risk. Martin asks which “known unknown” will erupt: a Chinese move on Taiwan, a new Russian attack on a neighbor, persistent non-state terrorism, or even a bizarre political chemistry between Trump and Brazil’s Lula.

On markets, he uses NVDA’s 2026 closing price—from $300 down to a dramatic $37 tech-bust scenario—as shorthand for how political shocks, war, and regulation could rattle investors.

Readers who follow both politics and finance can treat these questions as prompts: How resilient are your own assumptions about stability, from supply chains to energy and defense stocks?

Why College Football Keeps Showing Up in Politics

Martin closes with the “Lane Kiffin Experiment” at LSU, asking whether 2026 brings drama and disaster, drama and competence, or drama and dominance. It’s more than a sports punchline. The segment highlights how American politics and big-time college football share themes of ego, risk, and spectacle.

If you enjoy political coverage that doesn’t feel dry, this sports crossover is a reminder: following culture—especially the SEC—often gives you early reads on voter mood, identity, and leadership styles.

How to Use These Predictions as a Political Reader

To get the most from Martin’s 2026 “office pool,” try treating it as a living checklist:

• Track which predictions age well—they reveal where the pressure truly was in 2026.
• Use the categories (courts, Congress, geopolitics, markets, culture) as a framework for your own news diet.
• Build a reading list around each theme: Supreme Court coverage, redistricting explainers, Ukraine and Taiwan briefings, and long-form sports-and-politics features.

Want to go deeper? Pair this column with ongoing congressional coverage, Supreme Court reporting, and election analysis to see how Martin’s playful multiple choice test mapped onto real-world outcomes.

Source: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/12/31/2026-politics-predictions-quiz-00708039