Arizona Politics 2025: A Turbulent Year in Review

Arizona Politics 2025: A Turbulent Year in Review

Arizona Politics 2025: Assassination, Veto Waves, and a Tumultuous Year Ahead

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

  • Arizona politics in 2025 were defined by a shocking political assassination, aggressive vetoes, and deep partisan clashes.
  • Immigration enforcement fears under the Trump administration reshaped daily life and work in immigrant-heavy sectors like child care and construction.
  • The death of a longtime congressman and a delayed swearing-in reshuffled power dynamics and spotlighted the fight over the Jeffrey Epstein files.
  • State leaders clashed in court and at the Capitol, with record-breaking vetoes and lawsuits targeting federal policies on birthright citizenship and SNAP.
  • Key 2026 races are already taking shape, with a high-profile House member running for governor and a prime swing district suddenly wide open.

Table of Contents

Immigration Crackdown and a Climate of Fear

When Donald Trump took office again, his administration immediately rescinded guidance that had discouraged Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations in so-called sensitive locations like schools and churches. While Arizona has not seen the same kind of highly visible, large-scale ICE raids reported in some other states, the policy shift has created a powerful chilling effect.

Industries with high numbers of immigrant workers, including child care and construction, are feeling the pressure. Families may be hesitating to seek services or report abuse, and employers are navigating workforce instability.

For readers working in or relying on these sectors, it is worth:

  • Staying informed about local legal aid organizations and immigrant support groups.
  • Following state and local coverage on workplace enforcement trends and worker protections.

From Raúl to Adelita Grijalva and the Epstein Files Fight

One of the year’s pivotal transitions came after the death of longtime U.S. Rep. Raúl Grijalva, who passed away in March after a battle with cancer. Voters in his southern Arizona district elected his daughter, Adelita Grijalva, to succeed him in July.

Her path to power, however, was anything but routine. House Speaker Mike Johnson delayed her swearing-in for a historic 50 days, and she was not inaugurated until November 12. The delay occurred during a federal government shutdown and quickly became entangled in a larger transparency fight.

Democrats argued that the holdup was an attempt to delay the public release of the Jeffrey Epstein files. Once sworn in, Grijalva provided the crucial 218th signature to force a vote on making those files public, underscoring how a single House seat can influence major national disclosures.

Budget Deal, Record Vetoes, and Persistent Gridlock

At the state level, Arizona narrowly avoided a government shutdown in June. Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs and the Republican-controlled Legislature struck a deal on a $17.6 billion budget, keeping agencies funded and services running.

But that spirit of compromise quickly faded. Over the rest of the legislative session, Hobbs vetoed 174 bills, breaking her own single-year record of 143 vetoes set in 2023. The scale of the vetoes highlights how deep the policy divide remains at the Capitol, from social issues to spending priorities.

For politically engaged Arizonans, this veto wave is a signal to:

  • Track which policy areas repeatedly fail to gain bipartisan support.
  • Watch how candidates frame these clashes in their 2026 campaign messaging.

Lawsuits Against the Trump Administration

Arizona’s Attorney General Kris Mayes positioned herself as an outspoken legal counterweight to the Trump administration. She joined more than two dozen lawsuits targeting federal actions, including:

  • A challenge to attempts to end birthright citizenship.
  • A fight against the withholding of SNAP benefits, which directly affects low-income Arizonans who rely on food assistance.

This aggressive litigation strategy makes Arizona a key battleground in national debates over constitutional rights, immigration, and the social safety net.

Political Assassination and the Future of the MAGA Movement

One of the most shocking events of 2025 was the assassination of Charlie Kirk, the founder of Turning Point USA, during a rally at Utah Valley University in September. Based in the Phoenix area, Kirk and his organization were central players in the conservative and MAGA ecosystem.

His killing sent shockwaves through national politics and raised immediate questions: Who will inherit his organizational infrastructure, donor networks, and grassroots energy? Within Arizona, it also reshapes how conservative youth and campus activism may be organized moving forward.

Observers tracking the right-wing movement in the state will be watching for emerging leaders and any realignment among local conservative groups.

Big Election Moves: Schweikert, Mesa, and 2026 Stakes

Looking ahead to 2026, electoral maneuvering is already underway. Longtime U.S. Rep. David Schweikert announced in September that he is leaving his U.S. House seat to run for governor. He enters a Republican primary field that already includes U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs and lobbyist Karrin Taylor Robson.

Schweikert’s move leaves the highly competitive Congressional District 1 wide open, inviting strong contenders from both parties and turning the race into one of the state’s marquee contests.

At the local level, Turning Point notched a significant win in Mesa. The group successfully recalled moderate Republican Council Member Julie Spilsbury after she faced backlash for endorsing Kamala Harris and Ruben Gallego in 2024. Even as MAGA-aligned candidates struggled nationally in November, this recall shows how organized conservative activists can still shape down-ballot races in Arizona.

Trump vs. Kelly: Military Orders and a High-Stakes Investigation

Arizona’s senior U.S. Senator Mark Kelly, a former Naval officer, found himself at the center of a new conflict with President Trump. Kelly appeared in a video with five other Democratic lawmakers in November, reminding military and service members that they must disobey unlawful orders.

Trump responded by labeling the video as SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR, punishable by DEATH. In the wake of that statement, the Pentagon opened a military investigation into Kelly and recently upgraded it to an official Command Investigation.

This clash blends civil-military relations, free speech, and partisan polarization. For voters, it underscores how Arizona’s federal representatives are involved not just in routine legislation but in core questions about constitutional obligations and executive power.

What It Means for Arizonans in 2026

From the shock of a political assassination to record-breaking vetoes and a raft of lawsuits, 2025 fundamentally reshaped Arizona’s political terrain. The state is now a frontline actor in national debates over immigration enforcement, food security, and the limits of presidential authority.

For residents and politically engaged readers, the most practical steps going into 2026 include:

  • Following local reporting on Congressional District 1 and the governor’s race, where state and national agendas will collide.
  • Tracking how immigration enforcement changes are affecting local schools, churches, and workplaces.
  • Monitoring outcomes of lawsuits around birthright citizenship and SNAP, given their direct impact on communities across Arizona.
  • Engaging with city-level decisions, as shown by the Mesa recall, where organized groups can dramatically alter local representation.

As Axios put it, the bottom line is clear: buckle up. With midterm elections approaching and institutions already under strain, 2026 is poised to be even more politically turbulent for Arizona.

Source: https://www.axios.com/local/phoenix/2025/12/23/arizona-politics-2025-recap

Steve

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