A year into Trump’s second term, Iowa voters offer clues for the midterm elections
Estimated reading time: 6 minutes
- Trump’s standing in rural Iowa matters for 2026. Voters show a mix of support with concerns about policy direction and “America First” priorities.
- Economy and borders loom large. Observers note improvements in some areas, but immigration and energy policy remain touchpoints.
- Local dynamics beat national narratives. Suburban Des Moines voters and rural counties alike influence possible House gains.
- Voters crave change with accountability. Several residents express desire for freshness and results over rhetoric.
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The Scene in Kellerton, Iowa
Shanen Ebersole, a longtime rancher, keeps watch over her cattle as calving season approaches. “We’ll walk them the mile and a half home in a month or so,” she says. She backed Nikki Haley earlier in 2024 but ultimately voted for Donald Trump, citing farm-friendly policies. Now she’s weighing 2026 options and says the mood is shifting toward patience: “We can say calm down. We can say talk nice.”
Trump has been back in the White House for a year, and Ebersole notes a mixed bag: the economy feels a bit better and illegal border crossings are down, but she pushed back on Trump’s plan to increase low-tariff beef imports from Argentina and “somehow taking control of Greenland,” calling it off-message and not a priority for farmers who rely on the 50 states. “We need to take care of the 50 states that we have.”
Ringgold County, in southwest Iowa, has trended ruby-red for decades. The region will vote in 2026 for governor, a new US senator, and one more term for a GOP-dominated 3rd Congressional District, a focus for Democratic opportunities in the midterms. In 2024, Trump carried the 3rd District by a margin of nearly 16,000 votes; the 1st District margin was even tighter at 799 votes.
A Trump Convert Says, “I Got What I Voted For”
Betsy Sarcone, who lives in the Des Moines suburbs, says she’s happy with Trump’s first year back in office. “I’m happy. I got what I voted for. And I think Trump has proved himself.”
She moved from supporting Ron DeSantis in 2024 to Nikki Haley before backing Trump. She notes the economy is improving and says “77 million of us don’t care about the rhetoric anymore.” She also supports Iowa’s school-choice program and credits local Republicans for policy wins. Yet she has grown more skeptical, admitting: “I’m starting to question the election of 2020.”
“Sometimes it gets ugly,” but securing the border is worth it
Chris Mudd, a Waterloo-based business owner, is a vocal Trump supporter who worries about how the 2020 election is discussed. He says he believes election integrity will be revisited, even as his optimism grows that Trump’s policies—like stricter border control—are good for the country. He notes high energy prices have helped his solar business and that Trump’s approach has shifted the political conversation. “When you make the sausage, sometimes it gets ugly. We have to secure the borders, and they are secure now.”
Mudd acknowledges Trump may be tested in the 2026 race and worries about the potential for impeachment drama. He sees a possible path for the 2nd District to become competitive as long as the incumbent seeks Senate re-election, and he indicates he’ll likely vote red across the ticket.
“Go Down a Rural Road” to Sway Voters
In Columbus Junction, locals are focused on getting Democratic candidates on the ballot and building grassroots support. Michele Pegg, the new county Democratic chair, stresses the value of door-to-door engagement: “You want the office? You need to sway the voters. Go down to a rural county. Go down a gravel road. Knock on a door.” She warns that rural Democratic brand perception remains fragile but insists that field efforts can close gaps with Trump-leaning voters.
Implications for 2026 Midterms
The midterms will test whether Democrats can translate rural discontent and selective dissatisfaction with Trump into gains in red-leaning districts. Analysts say flipping a few seats in places like Iowa would help Democrats build a cushion, but they’ll need broad base turnout and credible candidates who can bridge divides. The story highlights how local voices—farmers, suburban residents, and party organizers—are shaping the political conversation beyond national headlines. The 2026 landscape will hinge on policy clarity, candidate accessibility, and the ability to address everyday concerns about water, soil, schools, and funding for education.
This story has been updated to clarify Trump’s share of the vote in Iowa in the past three presidential elections.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/19/politics/iowa-voters-2026-elections-trump-first-year-aotm
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