How Gaza Could Shape Maryland’s 2026 Midterms

How Gaza Could Shape Maryland’s 2026 Midterms

Is Gaza a Sleeper Issue in the 2026 Maryland Midterms?

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

Key takeaways

  • The Israel-Gaza conflict is emerging as a powerful values-based issue in Maryland politics, especially within the Democratic Party.
  • Key 2026 races — from a potential open U.S. House seat to the Montgomery County executive contest — are likely to feature candidates’ positions on Gaza and Israel prominently.
  • Jewish and pro-Palestinian advocacy groups, along with major pro-Israel PACs, are already shaping the political landscape and funding battles.
  • Debates over local funding ties to Israel, such as support for the Maryland Israel Development Center, show how foreign policy fights are spilling into state and county budgets.
  • Generational and ideological divides among Democrats suggest that the political impact of Gaza in Maryland will grow through 2026 and into 2028.

Table of contents

Why Gaza suddenly matters in Maryland politics

The war in Gaza, following the brutal Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attacks that killed at least 1,200 people in Israel and a subsequent campaign that has reportedly led to roughly 70,000 Palestinian deaths, has become a political pivot point in the U.S. Even in a deep-blue state like Maryland, the conflict is no longer a distant foreign policy topic. It is influencing endorsements, campaign strategies, local budgets, and intra-party debates.

Recent flashpoints underscore that volatility: a public clash between U.S. Sen. Chris Van Hollen and a top regional Jewish leader over Israel’s conduct in Gaza; a student government divestment vote at the University of Maryland on Yom Kippur; and heightened criticism of elected officials seen as either too harsh or too soft on Israel. Together, these signal that Gaza may quietly become one of the most emotionally charged undercurrents of the 2026 midterms.

How Gaza is dividing Democrats and reshaping values

Within Maryland’s dominant Democratic Party, the Gaza debate is increasingly a values test. Former Chevy Chase councilmember and foreign policy expert Joel Rubin describes it as part of a broader “values platform” for progressive Democrats. J Street strategist Tali deGroot notes that the U.S.-Israel relationship is now a clear way for Democratic candidates to differentiate themselves.

For some activists, like former state Del. Saqib Ali, a candidate’s stance on Gaza and Palestinian rights is “kind of a litmus test: What are your human rights values?” But one voter’s moral clarity can look like prejudice or extremism to another. That tension is amplified on social media, where accusations of antisemitism and Islamophobia often flare.

Data from national polling suggests shifting public opinion: younger Democrats are more critical of Israel’s government and more sympathetic to Palestinians than older voters. In Maryland, that generational gap is likely to shape primaries, especially in college-heavy and suburban districts.

Key Maryland races where Gaza could be decisive

The most obvious 2026 flashpoint is Maryland’s 5th Congressional District, if long-serving Rep. Steny Hoyer chooses to retire at 87. Hoyer has been one of Israel’s strongest allies in Congress over his 44-year career. An open seat would almost certainly draw a crowded Democratic field with sharply contrasting positions on Gaza and Israel.

Money will matter. The United Democracy Project (UDP), a super PAC aligned with AIPAC, has already spent more than $8 million in recent Maryland cycles, including about $4.2 million to help defeat former Rep. Donna Edwards in 2022 and another $4.2 million backing Rep. Sarah Elfreth in 2024. It is hard to imagine UDP sitting out a race to replace Hoyer, whether to support a strongly pro-Israel candidate or to oppose a critic.

Locally, voters can expect Gaza-related questions to appear in forums and questionnaires, even for offices that have no formal say over foreign policy. Candidates will be pressed to define their moral framework, where they stand on military aid, and how they interpret terms like “ceasefire,” “occupation,” and “two-state solution.”

Local funding fights: Maryland Israel Development Center

One concrete way Gaza politics is surfacing in Maryland is through debates over funding for the Maryland Israel Development Center (MIDC), a public-private partnership that builds business ties between Maryland and Israel. For 2024, the state allocated $225,000, down from $275,000 in prior years, while Montgomery County budgeted $47,000.

Although these funds are set administratively by the Department of Commerce, rather than directly in the legislature, critics are pushing lawmakers to intervene. At a Montgomery County delegation hearing, Jewish activist Nathan Feldman urged legislators to strip MIDC funding, prompting Sen. Ben Kramer to fire back with a charged remark about a “Jew-hate fest” — directed at a speaker who is himself Jewish.

For data-minded voters, these debates are a reminder to look beyond rhetoric to budget lines and contract details: Is funding tied to security, civilian tech, or weapons? That nuance will likely become a key talking point for both supporters and opponents of MIDC in 2026.

Montgomery County executive race and Jewish voters

Montgomery County — home to over 40% of Maryland’s Jewish population — is poised to be a major arena for Gaza-related politics in 2026. The Democratic primary for county executive is expected to be competitive, with leading contenders including councilmembers Will Jawando, Andrew Friedson, and Evan Glass.

Jawando has publicly questioned MIDC funding, saying he wants clarity on whether county dollars support weapons development and calling such use a “non-starter.” Meanwhile, the Jewish Community Relations Council (JCRC) has honored Friedson with its inaugural Community Champion Award for his support on security funding for Jewish institutions and opposition to antisemitism. While not a formal endorsement, the award sends a strong signal to engaged Jewish voters.

When two Israeli embassy workers were murdered outside a Jewish museum in Washington, D.C., the same night as Friedson’s award event, all three leading candidates quickly issued statements condemning the attack and antisemitism. That rapid, unified response shows how central safety, identity, and symbolism have become in local campaigns.

Still, most Montgomery voters will also weigh bread-and-butter issues: education, housing, transportation, public safety, economic development, and taxes. Gaza is unlikely to be the only deciding factor, but it may offer a powerful lens through which voters judge character and core values.

Sen. Van Hollen and the longer-term political fallout

Sen. Chris Van Hollen is at the center of Maryland’s evolving Democratic debate. His sharp criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and calls, alongside Sen. Angela Alsobrooks and Rep. Jamie Raskin, to condition or curtail some military funding have earned him praise from groups like J Street, which lauds his “strong moral leadership.”

Yet some longtime allies are worried. Former state Sen. Bobby Zirkin used a Baltimore Sun op-ed to accuse Van Hollen of echoing “Hamas propaganda” and blasted his endorsement of Zohran Mamdani, New York City’s mayor, who is viewed by critics as part of a harder-line pro-Palestinian camp.

Privately, some Jewish supporters frame Van Hollen’s 2028 reelection as a “reclamation project” if anger over Gaza lingers. Others argue that opinion is shifting so rapidly that by 2028 his stance may look prescient, much like the swift evolution on marriage equality a decade earlier.

How Maryland voters can engage with this complex issue

If you are a Maryland voter trying to make sense of Gaza’s role in 2026, a few practical steps can help you navigate beyond the noise:

  • Track candidate statements over time. Compare what they said in 2023–2024 to what they say in 2026. Consistency often signals deeper conviction.
  • Follow the money. Look up contributions and independent expenditures from groups like AIPAC-aligned PACs, J Street, and local advocacy organizations.
  • Examine local budget items. Pay attention to line items like MIDC funding at the state and county level and ask how those dollars are used.
  • Engage respectfully. Attend town halls, submit questions, and push candidates to explain how their positions align with human rights, regional security, and community safety here at home.

For readers who want to go deeper, consider exploring:

  • The Maryland General Assembly’s budget documents and hearing archives for references to Israel-related initiatives.
  • Issue pages on campaign websites outlining candidates’ positions on Israel, Gaza, antisemitism, and Islamophobia.
  • Nonpartisan news outlets that track foreign policy debates at the state level.

As the 2026 cycle unfolds, Gaza is unlikely to dominate every race, but it will remain a powerful undercurrent in Maryland politics — shaping alliances, drawing new lines within the Democratic Party, and forcing candidates to articulate what moral leadership looks like in a time of global crisis.

Source: https://marylandmatters.org/2026/01/02/analysis-is-gaza-a-sleeper-issue-in-the-maryland-midterms/

Steve

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